Backed by 3,813 simulated bets across the 2021–2025 AFL seasons.
We tested every AFL market honestly. Here's the scorecard.
The market is unbeatable. We match it for credibility, not edge.
Market is efficient. No edge worth betting.
Marginal. Content play, not a serious bet.
Real edge. Champion Data + opponent concession beats most books.
Player props is the only market that beats the bookies. Here's what that looks like by role.
MAE = mean absolute error in disposal predictions. Lower is better. Goals MAE: 0.52 overall.
Our edge comes from Champion Data — opponent concession rates by role, time-on-ground adjustments, and venue factors that most punters and many bookies don't price properly. The model isn't magic. It just has better inputs.
Sample: 1,062 AFL games across 2021–2025, with real bookmaker odds from the AusSportsBetting historical dataset (free, public, 2009–present).
Validation: Walk-forward — model trained on 2021–2023 data, tested on a 2024–2025 holdout. No leakage from the future into training.
Props model inputs:
Bet trigger: 7% minimum edge for OVER/UNDER, 10% for STRONG_OVER/STRONG_UNDER. The 60.2% hit rate quoted above is the 15%+ edge subset of the 3,813 bets.
We tested every market honestly. When we can't beat it, we say so.
Every prop picked at 15%+ edge this season. Settled automatically post-game. No cherry-picks.
The picks are on the betting page. Get on early — lines move when the sharps spot what we've already priced.
Bet at
18+ only. Gamble responsibly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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