Captaincy

The range each candidate could return

Every candidate below is drawn as a distribution of plausible outcomes given their established level. Nothing here is ranked best, because the right pick depends on whether you are protecting a lead or chasing one — and only you know which.

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Our position

Nobody predicts a single round well, us included. Measured on this data, the best available point projection is barely better than a season average (MAE 19.5 against a hard floor of 17.2), and most of the remaining gap is irreducible game-day variance. So we do not sell a number — we show the shape of the outcomes and let you choose.

15 candidates

floor → ceiling middle 50% median

Max GawnMelbourne49.4% ownedrole change applied
94.3
167.3127.9
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longercohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Bailey SmithGeelong44.6% owned
81.4
154.4115
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 12.9 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Max HolmesGeelong52.2% ownedrole change applied
91
153120.2
spread 62.1skew +3.6 — upside longergives up 13.2 expected pts vs the top optioncohort all (cohort too thin) · n=5858
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Brodie GrundySydney30.1% owned
80.3
153.4113.9
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 14 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Nick DaicosCollingwood71.7% owned
79.9
152.9113.5
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 14.4 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Zak ButtersPort Adelaide67.6% ownedrole change applied
78.8
151.8112.4
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 15.5 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Role reduced 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted -2.9 from the measured -5.74 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Harry SheezelNorth Melbourne79.5% ownedrole change applied
88.3
150.4117.6
spread 62.1skew +3.6 — upside longergives up 15.9 expected pts vs the top optioncohort all (cohort too thin) · n=5858
Role reduced 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted -2.9 from the measured -5.74 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Isaac HeeneySydney34.1% owned
77.9
151111.5
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 16.4 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Marcus BontempelliWestern Bulldogs61.9% owned
77.6
150.6111.2
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 16.7 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Tristan XerriNorth Melbourne19.8% ownedrole change applied
87.2
149.3116.5
spread 62.1skew +3.6 — upside longergives up 17 expected pts vs the top optioncohort all (cohort too thin) · n=5858
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Ed RichardsWestern Bulldogs15.3% ownedrole change applied
77.3
150.3110.9
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 17 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Errol GuldenSydney14.4% owned
77
150.1110.6
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 17.3 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Luke JacksonFremantle54.8% ownedrole change applied
75.1
148.2108.7
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 19.2 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Role reduced 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted -2.9 from the measured -5.74 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Zach MerrettEssendon20.8% ownedrole change applied
74.5
147.6108.1
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 19.8 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Izak RankineAdelaide18.1% ownedrole change applied
73.4
146.4107
spread 73.1skew +5.9 — upside longergives up 20.9 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=257
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.

The figure at the right of each row is the median — where the distribution sits, not a projection of what the player will score.

On ownership

Ownership is shown as context, not as an edge. Measured at equal player quality, lower-owned captains did NOT produce more variance or more upside — within every level band the spread was flat and the big-win rate was lower. Ownership here is also a proxy for captaincy ownership, which SuperCoach does not publish.

How to read this

centre: The player's established level, adjusted only if a role change is active.
floor: 10th percentile — one round in ten goes at least this badly.
ceiling: 90th percentile — one round in ten goes at least this well.
skew: Positive means the upside tail is longer than the downside. It is NOT symmetric and varies by cohort.
spread: Width of the 80% band. Wider means less certain, not worse.

Candidates: 15
Basis: established level

WedgeCoach projections. Independent AFL analysis. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Champion Data, the AFL, SuperCoach, KFC AFL Fantasy, or Herald Sun.