Captaincy

The range each candidate could return

Every candidate below is drawn as a distribution of plausible outcomes given their established level. Nothing here is ranked best, because the right pick depends on whether you are protecting a lead or chasing one — and only you know which.

Our position

Nobody predicts a single round well, us included. Measured on this data, the best available point projection is barely better than a season average (MAE 19.5 against a hard floor of 17.2), and most of the remaining gap is irreducible game-day variance. So we do not sell a number — we show the shape of the outcomes and let you choose.

15 candidates

floor → ceiling middle 50% median

Max GawnMelbourne48.1% ownedrole change applied
83.1
154116.2
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longercohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Role reduced 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted -2.9 from the measured -5.74 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Harry SheezelNorth Melbourne79.6% ownedrole change applied
92.5
154.6122
spread 62skew +3.1 — upside longergives up 1.3 expected pts vs the top optioncohort all (cohort too thin) · n=4698
Role reduced 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted -2.9 from the measured -5.74 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Nick DaicosCollingwood71.3% owned
80.2
151.1113.3
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 2.9 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Max HolmesGeelong52.2% ownedrole change applied
90.9
152.9120.3
spread 62skew +3.1 — upside longergives up 2.9 expected pts vs the top optioncohort all (cohort too thin) · n=4698
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Brodie GrundySydney31.5% owned
80.1
151113.2
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 3 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Zak ButtersPort Adelaide67.6% ownedrole change applied
77.8
148.7110.9
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 5.2 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Role reduced 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted -2.9 from the measured -5.74 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Tristan XerriNorth Melbourne19.7% ownedrole change applied
77.7
148.6110.8
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 5.3 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Nasiah Wanganeen-MileraSt Kilda48.1% owned
77.4
148.3110.5
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 5.6 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Marcus BontempelliWestern Bulldogs66.2% owned
77.2
148.1110.3
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 5.8 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Bailey SmithGeelong42.1% owned
76.9
147.8110
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 6.2 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Isaac HeeneySydney33.3% owned
75.4
146.3108.5
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 7.6 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Luke JacksonFremantle54.4% ownedrole change applied
72.5
143.4105.6
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 10.6 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Role reduced 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted -2.9 from the measured -5.74 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.
Jordan DawsonAdelaide30.5% owned
71.3
142.2104.4
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 11.8 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Errol GuldenSydney9.8% owned
69.3
140.2102.4
spread 70.9skew +4.7 — upside longergives up 13.7 expected pts vs the top optioncohort elite|heavy-mid · n=213
Jai NewcombeHawthorn6% ownedrole change applied
80.5
144.4110.2
spread 63.9skew +4.5 — upside longergives up 13.9 expected pts vs the top optioncohort strong|heavy-mid · n=266
Role expanded 3 round(s) ago; centre adjusted +5.8 from the measured +11.64 average, decayed by rounds elapsed.

The figure at the right of each row is the median — where the distribution sits, not a projection of what the player will score.

On ownership

Ownership is shown as context, not as an edge. Measured at equal player quality, lower-owned captains did NOT produce more variance or more upside — within every level band the spread was flat and the big-win rate was lower. Ownership here is also a proxy for captaincy ownership, which SuperCoach does not publish.

How to read this

centre: The player's established level, adjusted only if a role change is active.
floor: 10th percentile — one round in ten goes at least this badly.
ceiling: 90th percentile — one round in ten goes at least this well.
skew: Positive means the upside tail is longer than the downside. It is NOT symmetric and varies by cohort.
spread: Width of the 80% band. Wider means less certain, not worse.

Candidates: 15
Basis: established level

WedgeCoach projections. Independent AFL analysis. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Champion Data, the AFL, SuperCoach, KFC AFL Fantasy, or Herald Sun.