Accuracy ledger

Every round we have scored, including the bad ones

A public, permanent record of how closely our independent scoring formula reproduces the official SuperCoach score for a completed match. Each round is written once and never edited.

What this measures

Given a player's completed stat line for a match, how close our formula's SuperCoach score is to the official one. That is a reverse-engineering result, and it is the claim we are willing to be held to.

It is not a forecast. Projecting a player's next score is a different and much harder problem, and we make no accuracy claim about it here — which is precisely why this page exists separately.

2026 season

Mean error

5.01SC pts

Within ±5

58.5%

of 8,230 scores

Within ±10

88.7%

Bias

-0.01

mean signed error

Best round

Round 15

4.49MAE

63.4% within ±5 · bias -0.03

Worst round

Round 12

5.61MAE

51.4% within ±5 · bias +0.03

Round by round

Round	MAE	±5	±10	Bias	Players
R21	4.51	63.6%	91.5%	-0.02	412
R20	5.04	55.8%	88.3%	-0.01	412
R19	4.80	60.7%	90.0%	-0.04	412
R18	5.41	51.7%	88.3%	0.00	412
R17	5.03	59.8%	89.3%	-0.01	413
R16	5.50	50.3%	85.6%	-0.01	320
R15	4.49	63.4%	91.9%	-0.03	320
R14	4.57	60.5%	92.8%	-0.01	319
R13	4.65	62.9%	91.0%	-0.01	367
R12	5.61	51.4%	85.3%	+0.03	319
R11	4.97	58.2%	90.0%	-0.01	411
R10	5.37	55.0%	86.1%	-0.03	411
R9	4.80	60.2%	90.3%	-0.02	412
R8	4.56	61.8%	90.3%	-0.02	411
R7	5.17	57.9%	85.6%	+0.01	411
R6	4.94	58.5%	89.8%	0.00	412
R5	4.78	64.1%	90.3%	-0.01	412
R4	5.20	58.2%	86.1%	+0.03	366
R3	5.49	56.4%	86.2%	+0.06	319
R2	5.01	60.8%	85.9%	-0.02	319
R1	5.25	56.0%	88.1%	-0.07	411
R0	5.17	57.2%	86.9%	-0.01	229

Round 21 detail

Round 20 detail

Round 19 detail

Round 18 detail

Round 17 detail

Round 16 detail

Round 15 detail

Round 14 detail

Round 13 detail

Round 12 detail

Round 11 detail

Round 10 detail

Round 9 detail

Round 8 detail

Round 7 detail

Round 6 detail

Round 5 detail

Round 4 detail

Round 3 detail

Round 2 detail

Round 1 detail

Round 0 detail

Rounds: 22
Scores compared: 8,230
Within ±15: 97.7%
Model: sc-full-2012-2019-checksum-filtered
Method: Legal & data attribution

Official SuperCoach scores are sourced from the public SuperCoach API and are the property of their owners. Our figures are independent estimates. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Champion Data, the AFL, SuperCoach, KFC AFL Fantasy, or Herald Sun.