Role changes
What already changed
Coaches decide role; role decides opportunity; scores follow last. Every entry below is a player whose opportunity profile has already shifted — what moved, when, and what that shift has historically been worth.
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Nothing on this page forecasts a score. Every entry is an observed change that has already happened, measured against the player's own prior baseline with an unflagged control group. We publish the effect size and the sample so you can judge it yourself.
Historically, what a flagged change has been worth
Expanded role
+11.64SC/game
vs -0.37 for unflagged players
Reduced role
-5.74SC/game
n=130 detections, 2026 season
Price lag
2rounds
70% moved >5% · mean 6.5%
Why the lag exists
SuperCoach prices off a rolling average of recent scores, so price lags role by construction. This is a structural property of the scoring system, not a market inefficiency that closes.
60 detected
- centre bounce attendances12 → 0-12
- centre bounce attendances0 → 5.7+5.7
- centre bounce attendances4 → 18.7+14.7
- centre bounce attendances19.5 → 9.3-10.2
- centre bounce attendances0 → 20+20
- time on ground86.2% → 72.3%-13.8%
- time on ground64.2% → 84%+19.8%
- centre bounce attendances5.8 → 0-5.8
- hitouts11.8 → 0-11.8
- time on ground79% → 41.3%-37.7%
- centre bounce attendances8.7 → 22.3+13.7
- centre bounce attendances4 → 17.3+13.3
- time on ground81.7% → 69.7%-12%
- time on ground79% → 68.7%-10.3%
- time on ground97.8% → 83.7%-14.2%
- kick-in share14.2% → 49.4%+35.3%
- time on ground72.7% → 63.3%-9.3%
- centre bounce attendances14.8 → 6-8.8
- time on ground81.8% → 97.3%+15.5%
- time on ground75.8% → 84%+8.2%
- time on ground74% → 88.7%+14.7%
- centre bounce attendances6.8 → 24.3+17.5
- centre bounce attendances2 → 7.7+5.7
- kick-in share16% → 52.8%+36.8%
- time on ground79% → 67.7%-11.3%
- centre bounce attendances18.7 → 26+7.3
- centre bounce attendances3 → 15+12
- centre bounce attendances7.2 → 21+13.8
- centre bounce attendances12.2 → 4.7-7.5
- time on ground76.8% → 85.7%+8.8%
- centre bounce attendances4.2 → 23.3+19.2
- centre bounce attendances7 → 21.3+14.3
- centre bounce attendances20.7 → 29.3+8.7
- time on ground83.3% → 91.3%+8%
- centre bounce attendances22.8 → 32+9.2
- centre bounce attendances8.7 → 19.3+10.7
- centre bounce attendances23 → 11-12
- time on ground70.5% → 46.7%-23.8%
- hitouts29.3 → 16-13.3
- time on ground90.3% → 81.3%-9%
- centre bounce attendances6.8 → 20.7+13.8
- time on ground83.7% → 92.3%+8.7%
- time on ground85.5% → 77%-8.5%
- centre bounce attendances26.2 → 19.3-6.8
- centre bounce attendances15.2 → 2-13.2
- kick-in share13% → 71.9%+58.9%
- centre bounce attendances3.5 → 11.3+7.8
- time on ground82.5% → 72.3%-10.2%
- kick-in share3.3% → 35.6%+32.3%
- time on ground79% → 66.7%-12.3%
- hitouts7.8 → 17.3+9.5
- time on ground76% → 86.3%+10.3%
- centre bounce attendances7 → 1-6
- time on ground68.2% → 78.7%+10.5%
- time on ground69.8% → 83%+13.2%
- time on ground54.8% → 75.7%+20.8%
- hitouts18.3 → 40.3+22
- kick-in share41.2% → 8.9%-32.4%
- centre bounce attendances26.5 → 16.7-9.8
- centre bounce attendances19.2 → 0-19.2
- centre bounce attendances19.2 → 10.3-8.8
- time on ground83% → 75%-8%
- time on ground70.2% → 83.3%+13.2%
- centre bounce attendances15 → 2.3-12.7
- centre bounce attendances12.2 → 0.3-11.8
- centre bounce attendances21 → 27.3+6.3
- Detected
- 60
- Sample
- n=130 detections, 2026 season
Method. Welch two-sample test, 3-round recent window vs 6-round baseline, on centre bounce attendances, time on ground, hitouts and kick-in share. Threshold t=3.0 with per-measure minimum absolute movement. WedgeCoach projections. Independent AFL analysis. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Champion Data, the AFL, SuperCoach, KFC AFL Fantasy, or Herald Sun.